Field Guide
Brass Ticket
Member Edition
FedEx Cup Playoffs · The Final 50
The Final 50, Into the Home Stretch
Fifty players remain and two venues are left — Bellerive this week, East Lake next. The top 30 in points after this week advance to the Tour Championship; the other 20 are done for the year.
This is what we do: rank every player by how they are actually striking it — weighting ball-striking over putting, because ball-striking is the skill that repeats. Below is the whole field, seed by seed, with the honest read on each.
BMW Championship
Bellerive · This Week
50 play → top 30
TOUR Championship
East Lake · Next Week
30 play → the Cup
Seed = FedEx points rank
▲ / ▼ = playing better / worse than seed (our model rank)
app / ott / putt = strokes-gained profile (approach / off-the-tee / putting)
Bell · E.Lk = course record at each remaining venue (SG · starts; — = never played)
On the venue strip: both closing venues are low-confidence — Bellerive has essentially one edition on record, East Lake only its recent redesign. So the model gives course history almost no weight here; this is a form-driven read, not a course-fit one. A hollow “—” means no record there, not a bad one.
Cup Contenders  SEEDS 1–10
Realistic threats to win the FedEx Cup.
1
SEED
 Scottie Scheffler
FedEx 4,873 pts
 ≈ #1 on form
app +3.6   ott +3.1   putt +2.9
Bell
—
E.Lk
+7.9·2
Tops the board in every category — elite off the tee, with the irons, and on the greens. No Bellerive history, but at a venue this thinly sampled that barely matters. The clear man to beat.
2
SEED
 Matt Fitzpatrick
FedEx 3,426 pts
 ≈ #3 on form
app +4.3   ott +1.6   putt +0.7
Bell
-1.0·1
E.Lk
—
The field's best pure iron player (+4.3 approach). At a neutral ball-striking test with no strong course type, that iron game has a clean runway. A prime contender.
3
SEED
 Cameron Young
FedEx 3,183 pts
 ▼ playing to #11
app +3.0   ott +2.8   putt -0.1
Bell
—
E.Lk
+5.3·1
Elite tee-to-green all season (app +3.0, ott +2.8) — genuinely top-tier ball-striking. The putter is the swing factor; when it cooperates, he contends.
4
SEED
 Si Woo Kim
FedEx 2,701 pts
 ▼ playing to #10
app +4.0   ott +2.4   putt -0.1
Bell
-8.0·1
E.Lk
—
Elite ball-striking across the board (app +4.0, ott +2.4). A cold putter is the only real hole in an otherwise complete profile.
5
SEED
 Wyndham Clark
FedEx 2,542 pts
 ▼ playing to #31
app +2.4   ott +0.5   putt +1.7
Bell
—
E.Lk
+3.5·1
Steady form, led by irons; a positive East Lake line (+3.5 over 1) (thin samples — low weight).
6
SEED
 Sam Burns
FedEx 2,416 pts
 ≈ #5 on form
app +2.6   ott +1.2   putt +2.9
Bell
—
E.Lk
+2.9·2
Strong irons paired with a hot putter. The ball-striking is the durable part; the model flags the putting (+2.9) as the piece least likely to hold.
7
SEED
 Chris Gotterup
FedEx 2,288 pts
 ▼ playing to #19
app +2.2   ott +2.8   putt +1.5
Bell
—
E.Lk
+3.3·1
Strong form, led by length off the tee; a positive East Lake line (+3.3 over 1) (thin samples — low weight).
8
SEED
 Tommy Fleetwood
FedEx 2,247 pts
 ▲ playing to #4
app +2.4   ott +2.4   putt +0.8
Bell
+3.8·1
E.Lk
+4.4·2
A balanced, complete ball-striker. No course-type edge to lean on this week, but the all-around form stands on its own.
9
SEED
 Collin Morikawa
FedEx 2,242 pts
 ≈ #8 on form
app +4.3   ott +2.0   putt +0.2
Bell
—
E.Lk
+5.9·2
The purest irons in golf (+4.3 approach). At a venue with no strong type to reward or punish, elite iron play is exactly what travels.
10
SEED
 Ludvig Åberg
FedEx 2,130 pts
 ▼ playing to #17
app +3.1   ott +2.6   putt +0.8
Bell
—
E.Lk
-2.1·2
Strong form, led by irons; a negative East Lake line (-2.1 over 2) (thin samples — low weight).
Comfortable  SEEDS 11–20
Safely inside the top-30 line; playing to climb the East Lake seeding.
11
SEED
 Xander Schauffele
FedEx 1,981 pts
 ≈ #9 on form
app +2.4   ott +2.7   putt +1.3
Bell
+3.8·1
E.Lk
+1.5·1
Length off the tee paired with all-around form. A complete player trending in the right direction.
12
SEED
 Jacob Bridgeman
FedEx 1,761 pts
 ▼ playing to #35
app +2.2   ott +1.0   putt +3.1
Bell
—
E.Lk
-8.7·1
Modest form, led by the putter; a negative East Lake line (-8.7 over 1) (thin samples — low weight).
13
SEED
 Rory McIlroy
FedEx 1,745 pts
 ▼ playing to #22
app +2.5   ott +3.5   putt +1.1
Bell
+1.8·1
E.Lk
-0.1·2
Steady form, led by length off the tee; a middling East Lake line (-0.1 over 2) and a positive Bellerive round (+1.8) (thin samples — low weight).
14
SEED
 Russell Henley
FedEx 1,740 pts
 ▼ playing to #27
app +1.8   ott +1.7   putt +2.2
Bell
+1.8·1
E.Lk
+6.9·2
Steady form, led by the putter; a positive East Lake line (+6.9 over 2) and a positive Bellerive round (+1.8) (thin samples — low weight).
15
SEED
 Akshay Bhatia
FedEx 1,730 pts
 ▼ playing to #46
app +2.2   ott -0.5   putt +2.2
Bell
—
E.Lk
-2.6·2
Modest form, led by irons; a negative East Lake line (-2.6 over 2) (thin samples — low weight).
16
SEED
 Hideki Matsuyama
FedEx 1,600 pts
 ▲ playing to #2
app +3.0   ott +0.4   putt +0.7
Bell
+3.8·1
E.Lk
-6.1·2
Steady, approach-led, and venue-agnostic — the kind of profile that shows up week after week, wherever it's played.
17
SEED
 Ryan Gerard
FedEx 1,540 pts
 ▼ playing to #30
app +2.4   ott +1.4   putt +1.7
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Steady form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
18
SEED
 Min Woo Lee
FedEx 1,481 pts
 ▼ playing to #28
app +1.8   ott +2.3   putt +0.5
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Steady form, led by length off the tee; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
19
SEED
 Kristoffer Reitan
FedEx 1,473 pts
 ▼ playing to #47
app +0.7   ott +2.0   putt +0.4
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by length off the tee; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
20
SEED
 Alex Fitzpatrick
FedEx 1,416 pts
 ▼ playing to #34
app +3.9   ott +2.5   putt -0.7
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Steady form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
On the Bubble  SEEDS 21–30
Holding a top-30 spot — the ticket to East Lake — but with ground to defend.
21
SEED
 J.J. Spaun
FedEx 1,414 pts
 ▲ playing to #18
app +3.0   ott +1.7   putt -1.0
Bell
+3.8·1
E.Lk
-4.7·1
Steady form, led by irons; a negative East Lake line (-4.7 over 1) and a positive Bellerive round (+3.8) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cushion +156
22
SEED
 Viktor Hovland
FedEx 1,397 pts
 ▲ playing to #6
app +3.2   ott +0.8   putt +0.6
Bell
—
E.Lk
+2.9·2
A top-tier approach player (+3.2) flying under the radar. Quiet, consistent tee-to-green quality that works at any course.
Top-30 cushion +139
23
SEED
 Alex Smalley
FedEx 1,375 pts
 ≈ #24 on form
app +2.3   ott +1.1   putt +1.3
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Steady form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cushion +117
24
SEED
 Justin Rose
FedEx 1,355 pts
 ▲ playing to #15
app +2.9   ott +0.6   putt +0.7
Bell
+6.8·1
E.Lk
-1.7·1
Steady form, led by irons; a negative East Lake line (-1.7 over 1) and a positive Bellerive round (+6.8) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cushion +97
25
SEED
 Ryan Fox
FedEx 1,352 pts
 ▼ playing to #45
app +1.5   ott +1.4   putt +0.6
Bell
+5.8·1
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by irons; a positive Bellerive round (+5.8) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cushion +94
26
SEED
 Tom Kim
FedEx 1,341 pts
 ▲ playing to #13
app +3.4   ott +0.3   putt +0.4
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Strong form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cushion +83
27
SEED
 Adam Scott
FedEx 1,315 pts
 ▲ playing to #23
app +3.1   ott +1.3   putt +0.3
Bell
+12.8·1
E.Lk
+6.5·1
Modest form, led by irons; a positive East Lake line (+6.5 over 1) and a positive Bellerive round (+12.8) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cushion +57
28
SEED
 Kurt Kitayama
FedEx 1,259 pts
 ≈ #26 on form
app +3.3   ott +1.9   putt +0.2
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Steady form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cushion +1
29
SEED
 Bud Cauley
FedEx 1,258 pts
 ▼ playing to #38
app +1.9   ott +1.3   putt -0.9
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cushion +0
30
SEED
 Rickie Fowler
FedEx 1,258 pts
 ▲ playing to #12
app +1.8   ott +1.2   putt +1.5
Bell
+7.8·1
E.Lk
—
Steady form, led by irons; a positive Bellerive round (+7.8) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cushion +0
Season on the Line  SEEDS 31–50
Outside the top-30 cut. Move up this week, or the year ends Sunday.
31
SEED
 Gary Woodland
FedEx 1,256 pts
 ▲ playing to #25
app +1.3   ott +2.7   putt +0.9
Bell
+9.8·1
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by length off the tee; a positive Bellerive round (+9.8) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +2
32
SEED
 J.T. Poston
FedEx 1,237 pts
 ▼ playing to #41
app +1.5   ott +1.0   putt +0.6
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cut needs +21
33
SEED
 Nicolai Højgaard
FedEx 1,208 pts
 ▲ playing to #29
app +2.2   ott +1.6   putt +0.7
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Steady form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cut needs +50
34
SEED
 Alex Noren
FedEx 1,197 pts
 ≈ #36 on form
app +1.0   ott +0.4   putt +2.4
Bell
-1.0·1
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by the putter; a middling Bellerive round (-1.0) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +61
35
SEED
 Jake Knapp
FedEx 1,196 pts
 ▲ playing to #14
app +2.7   ott +1.4   putt +1.9
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Strong form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cut needs +62
36
SEED
 Robert MacIntyre
FedEx 1,191 pts
 ▲ playing to #32
app +0.8   ott +1.9   putt +2.1
Bell
—
E.Lk
-0.1·2
Steady form, led by the putter; a middling East Lake line (-0.1 over 2) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +67
37
SEED
 Aaron Rai
FedEx 1,146 pts
 ▼ playing to #42
app +2.4   ott +0.8   putt +0.0
Bell
—
E.Lk
-3.5·1
Modest form, led by irons; a negative East Lake line (-3.5 over 1) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +112
38
SEED
 Ben Griffin
FedEx 1,124 pts
 ▼ playing to #43
app +0.9   ott +0.4   putt +1.5
Bell
—
E.Lk
+3.3·1
Modest form, led by the putter; a positive East Lake line (+3.3 over 1) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +134
39
SEED
 Sepp Straka
FedEx 1,122 pts
 ▼ playing to #44
app +2.0   ott +0.6   putt -0.3
Bell
—
E.Lk
-11.6·2
Modest form, led by irons; a negative East Lake line (-11.6 over 2) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +136
40
SEED
 Sungjae Im
FedEx 1,052 pts
 ▲ playing to #33
app -0.7   ott +1.2   putt +1.5
Bell
+2.8·1
E.Lk
-1.6·2
Modest form, led by the putter; a negative East Lake line (-1.6 over 2) and a positive Bellerive round (+2.8) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +206
Season on the Line (cont'd)  SEEDS 31–50
41
SEED
 Michael Thorbjornsen
FedEx 1,051 pts
 ▲ playing to #16
app +0.9   ott +1.6   putt -0.3
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Strong form, led by length off the tee; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cut needs +207
42
SEED
 Nico Echavarria
FedEx 1,040 pts
 ≈ #40 on form
app +1.2   ott +0.2   putt +0.9
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cut needs +218
43
SEED
 Patrick Cantlay
FedEx 1,029 pts
 ▲ playing to #7
app +3.0   ott +1.7   putt +0.4
Bell
+5.8·1
E.Lk
+1.9·2
Strong form, led by irons; a positive East Lake line (+1.9 over 2) and a positive Bellerive round (+5.8) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +229
44
SEED
 Justin Thomas
FedEx 1,027 pts
 ▲ playing to #20
app +0.8   ott +1.2   putt +0.5
Bell
+9.8·1
E.Lk
+4.4·2
Modest form, led by length off the tee; a positive East Lake line (+4.4 over 2) and a positive Bellerive round (+9.8) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +231
45
SEED
 Ryo Hisatsune
FedEx 908 pts
 ▲ playing to #39
app +2.2   ott +1.7   putt -0.4
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cut needs +350
46
SEED
 Sahith Theegala
FedEx 898 pts
 ▼ playing to #50
app +1.5   ott -0.0   putt +0.7
Bell
—
E.Lk
+11.5·1
Modest form, led by irons; a positive East Lake line (+11.5 over 1) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +360
47
SEED
 Michael Brennan
FedEx 875 pts
 ▲ playing to #21
app +1.8   ott +2.8   putt +0.3
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Steady form, led by length off the tee; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cut needs +383
48
SEED
 Eric Cole
FedEx 875 pts
 ≈ #48 on form
app +0.9   ott -1.2   putt +1.9
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by the putter; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cut needs +383
49
SEED
 Maverick McNealy
FedEx 863 pts
 ▲ playing to #37
app +0.7   ott +1.2   putt +2.5
Bell
—
E.Lk
-2.7·1
Modest form, led by the putter; a negative East Lake line (-2.7 over 1) (thin samples — low weight).
Top-30 cut needs +395
50
SEED
 Matt McCarty
FedEx 845 pts
 ≈ #49 on form
app +1.3   ott +0.0   putt +1.3
Bell
—
E.Lk
—
Modest form, led by irons; no history at either remaining venue — a pure form read.
Top-30 cut needs +413
Brass Ticket · Strength-of-field adjusted · Form-driven · Ball-striking first
© 2026 Brass Ticket.
beehiivPowered by beehiiv